Report by Forecasting International; "Terror 2000: The Future Face of Terrorism"
The Futurist; May 1, 2007
By Dr. Marvin J. Cetron
Forecasting International (FI) is in the business of predicting future developments. Therefore, let us begin with a few of the easiest and least welcome predictions that FI has ever made.
- Terrorist events will be more common and bloody in the years ahead than they have been to date. September 11 will prove to have been no more than a taste of things to come.
- Al-Qaeda, often under other names, will grow much larger and more dangerous than the band of fanatics that attacked the Pentagon and the World Trade Center in 2001. This process already is well under way.
- Jihadists, or Muslim extremists, will acquire nuclear weapons within the next 10 years, if they do not possess them already.
- As things stand, the war on terror will drag on for decades, with many tactical successes but little or no strategic benefit. In the long run, this could leave the Western world facing choices even more horrific than the attacks themselves.
The remainder of this article will be devoted to explaining these forecasts and to examining the prospects for changing them. Finding some way to change the obvious direction of the war on terror is the single greatest need that faces not only the United States, but also the rest of the world.